The impact of climate change on the local endemic plants of Troodos National Forest Park

The Mediterranean Basin is characterised as an area of important biodiversity, which is however expected to be greatly affected by climate change. According to recent estimates, the species which are expected to be affected the most are those found only at higher elevations, and species endemic to islands.

Cyprus lies at the eastern end of the Mediterranean and its topography is characterized by the presence of two mountain ranges, Troodos and Pentadaktylos. The Troodos mountain range dominates the central-western part and has the island's highest peak (1952 m). In the central and highest part of the mountain range lies the Troodos National Forest Park (TNFP) which is the richest floristic region of Cyprus. TNFP hosts more than 780 plant taxa, of which 72 are endemic (50% of the endemic taxa of Cyprus), while 11 are local endemics.

In the framework of this study, a recording of the locations of the subpopulations of the species took place, along with the reproductive potential and relative reproductive success of individuals from three altitudinal positions (low, medium and high altitude). Emphasis was placed on investigating the seed germination from subpopulations from different altitudes, in existing and "future" conditions of temperature (estimations for the period from 2071 to 2100).

The study of the effect of climate change on seed germination is considered particularly important, since the germination process is irreversible (the most resistant [sperm] in the most vulnerable [seedling] stage), very critical and crucial in the reproductive cycle of plants.

The results from the experiments were used to estimate the impact of climate change on the distribution and survival of the species, while suggestions for addressing those impacts were also prepared.